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              深圳市金維通訊技術有限公司
              電話交換機程控電話交換機威譜電話交換機國威電話交換機...網點分布:深圳 廣州 中山 佛山 珠海 惠州

              電信業發展必然產物是語音免費


              如果說iPhone的出現引起了諾基亞等手機企業的緊張,那么,Skypephone的出現,挑動的恐怕就是移動運營商的神經了。

                  目前,就世界上絕大多數的運營商來說,語音以及增值服務都是其獲得收入的主要來源,差別只在于各自的比例為多少,按照電信行業的發展規律來說,電信市場越發達的運營商,增值服務收入的比重越大,在2G3G過渡的過程中,這一現象尤其明顯。

                  而在中國的電信市場,增值業務在運營商總體收入中的比例剛剛突破20%,仍然有接近八成的收入來自語音服務。

                  Skypephone的出現可以說完全打亂了運營商的商業模式:用戶可以通過Skype軟件免費通話,電信運營商的利益將“首當其沖”。

                  于是在VoIP(語音電話)發展的歷史上,總是要受到來自運營商的層層阻撓。比如在中國市場上,VoIP的發展始終處于“灰色地帶”,而帶有Wifi無線功能的手機要獲得信產部的許可,在中國市場銷售也必須屏蔽掉其Wifi功能,其中一個重要原因就是手機如果能實現無線上網,將對電信運營商的收入產生重大影響。

                  雖然Skypephone出現之前,也有運營商或者手機企業嘗試過內置Skype軟件,但畢竟還是零散現象,而Skypephone的出現卻在正式“宣告”,語音免費的時代真的就要到來了。

                  單純從語音免費的角度看待Skypephone的出現,或許也并不是“史無前例”。早在2004年,日本運營商上馬3G網絡的時候,就將收費模式改為包月制,這意味著用戶每月交納了一定費用之后,可以無限制地使用手機網絡,并通過手機網絡實現通話等一切功能。

                  對于這種接近使通話免費的做法,當時美國運營商和日本的其他運營商都表示出了極大的“反對”,并表示,這一天來得越晚越好。

                  但今年年初,美國最大的運營商AT&T Wireless(Cingular Wireless)宣布旗下用戶可以無限制地免費撥打和接聽其他AT&T用戶的電話,可以說真正開始了移動運營商的語音免費時代。

                  和黃旗下的3集團這次推出的SkypephoneAT&T的做法有異曲同工之妙,差別只在于Skypephone的出現更體現在互聯網與電信網融合的必然趨勢。

                  因此,移動運營商大可不必將Skypephone的出現視為“洪水猛獸”,因為從技術和市場的角度來看,語音免費是電信行業發展的必然,不管是從國外運營商還是中國移動、中國聯通的發展歷史都可以明白地看到這一趨勢。

                  重要的是,如何在這一趨勢出現之前,尋找到適合的而且是可行的商業模式。以Google即將推出的Gphone來說,雖然現在還不知道“廬山真面目”,但從市場上流傳出的消息看,比如通過用戶接聽廣告等方式與運營商達成協議,雖然用戶通話免費,但Google將廣告費與運營商分成,也是對未來電信運營模式的一種探索。

                  AT&T以及3集團在通話免費之后,更希望用這種方式形成用戶之間的黏性,比如,只有AT&T的用戶才能相互免費通話,將促進新增用戶的增長以及老用戶的穩定。對于3集團來說也是一樣,如果用戶希望能免費通話,首先必須成為集團的用戶,這些用戶相對也是穩定的。此外,這些用戶還將增加3集團的增值業務等其他服務收入。

                  不過從現在的情況來看,這種模式不會在中國出現,一方面是由于中國的電信市場相對壟斷,市場競爭還沒有激烈到這種程度;另一方面,中國還處在2G時代,語音通話是用戶的主要需求,其他的增值業務需要還不夠強大,也不夠支撐運營商的發展。

                  一個大膽的猜想是,在中國的3G正式啟動之后,后起運營商由于各種網絡以及經驗方面的欠缺,采取這種模式將明顯提升競爭力。不過不能忽視的前提是,首先要有政策方面的許可。

                  可以肯定的是,在三網融合的大背景之下,這一天肯定也會到來,只不過時間的長短而已,對于運營商來說,“如果不能打敗它,那就加入它吧。” 
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